Released today: New forecast of COVID-19 impact on petroleum demand in key markets

The first global petroleum demand model created by the Evaluate Energy team to forecast the COVID-19 impact on markets has been published today.

Key analysis includes the extent to which demand in the United States, China, Europe and Canada continues to decline and the pace of recovery.

Evaluate Energy forecasts that global petroleum demand will drop to a low of 64.8 million barrels a day in June 2020, from a peak of over 101 million barrels a day in late 2019. Average demand for 2020 will fall to 81.2 million barrels a day.  

The model is updated weekly and packaged into a report and Excel spreadsheet, available for download. For more information visit:

Forecasting demand during the existing and post-COVID-19 period is influenced by infection rates, government policy and changing human behaviour. Evaluate Energy is modelling this interaction to inform its forecast.

Analysis includes the following regions:

  • North America (United States, Canada and Mexico)
  • Central & South America (notably Brazil)
  • Europe
  • Russia & Eurasia
  • Asia and Oceania (including China, Japan and India)
  • Middle East
  • Africa

Evaluate Energy ( is a leading provider of essential data to Oil & Gas and Renewable Energy markets. Headquartered in the UK, it is a brand within the Glacier Resource Innovation Group – the same group that houses the Daily Oil Bulletin and JWN Energy.

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