Evaluate Energy launches global petroleum demand model to forecast COVID-19 impact on markets
Evaluate Energy, Glacier Resource Innovation Group’s leading provider of essential data to Oil & Gas and Renewable Energy markets, is launching a new forecasting tool to assess the impact of COVID-19 on global petroleum demand.
Evaluate Energy forecasts that global petroleum demand will drop to a low of 64.8 million barrels a day in June 2020, from a peak of over 101 million barrels a day in late 2019. Average demand for 2020 will fall to 81.2 million barrels a day.
Forecasting demand during the existing and post-COVID-19 period is influenced by infection rates, government policy and changing human behaviour. Evaluate Energy is modelling this interaction to inform its forecast.
For more information on the COVID-19 petroleum demand tool, visit:
Analysis will include the following regions:
- North America (United States, Canada and Mexico)
- Central & South America (notably Brazil)
- Russia & Eurasia
- Asia and Oceania (including China, Japan and India)
- Middle East
The model is updated weekly and packaged into a report and Excel spreadsheet, available for download.
“There has never been such a volatile time for oil demand,” said Bemal Mehta, Chief Operating Officer of Evaluate Energy.
“Every region that consumes oil and gas will have a different COVID-19 trajectory. There will not be consensus on whether a region is moving too fast or slow in terms of its pandemic response, with re-infection or additional regional outbreaks highly likely in parts of the globe where response by national governments has been inadequate.
“In terms of the oil market, this is an 18-24 month recovery cycle. We may not have reached bottom in terms of demand. We anticipate that any return to ‘normal’ – and it will be a new ‘normal’ – will be incredibly complicated.”
Evaluate Energy is a division of Glacier Resource Innovation Group.